Sorry if this has already been discussed.
If I'm reading the ladder right, to get a home semi, we need to win.
If we lose, we need to not be flogged (or at least not concede a cricket score) and the Sharks to win.
In that scenario, the Cows can catch us on wins but almost certainly won't pass us on the ladder because their points differential is -65 and we're (currently) +56.
The Rabbits could pass us with a win over the Chooks, which would move them to tie us on 14 wins, but they already have +86 differential. So given Walker has gone now and recent form, that doesn't look good for us.
BUT....if the Sharks win today, they can pass the Chooks (tied on wins and ahead on differential) and pinch their top 4 spot, if the Chooks lose to the Rabbits on Friday and Sharks beat the Storm on the Saturday. So the Sharks should be desperate to win today, and the Chooks should be desperate to win next week.
IF the Chooks beat the Rabbits...we move back to 6th with the bye.
If the NRL just ignored byes and posted wins and draws, this would all be a lot less confusing.
tl;dr We're not out of it if, for a home semi, we lose today.