2026 Ladder Predictions

There’s been a lot of talk about how poor our forward pack is this year. So I thought, I’d take a proper deep dive into it instead of just running with the narrative. Rather than reacting to the names we’ve lost, I compared likely starters vs starters and depth vs depth from 2025 (Dsaf 2024) to the projected 2026 pack.

Here’s how I see it.

Props​

Jacob Saifiti vs Daniel Saifiti (2024)
I’d actually say a slight upgrade here. Jacob has been more consistent recently and has had fewer interruptions due to injuries. Daniel was on big money and underperforming toward the end. Not a huge gap, but I lean toward Jacob.

Trey Mooney vs Leo Thompson
Right now? It’s a downgrade. Leo is a proven, rep-level, and established professional.
But Mooney has serious upside. He dominated the NSW Cup and was stuck behind Canberra’s elite pack. If he gets 40–50 mins weekly, this could look very different by mid-season.

Tyson Frizell vs Adam Elliott
Upgrade for me. Elliott had quality but was constantly injured. Frizell is older but more reliable, has a better career resume, and brings leadership.

Pasami Saulo vs Jack Hetherington
On par. Jack had more experience, but discipline and injuries were issues. Saulo was the Raiders NSW Cup Player of the Year and runs hard and straight. Different profiles, similar overall impact.

-------------------------------------------------

Second Row​

Kai Pearce-Paul vs Jamie McEwen / Tom Cant
This is a downgrade — for now.
KPP is more proven. But I also think we never fully unlocked him. McEwen and Cant are young, raw, and won’t play 80 mins yet. However, there is upside. If one of them kicks on, this gap closes quickly.

Dylan Lucas
No change. He’s a gun. Fringe Origin level. If anything, he’s improving.

Hooker​

Jayden Brailey vs Phoenix Crossland
On par.
They were basically sharing the role anyway. Brailey brought structure but had major injury history. Crossland isn’t flashy but defends well and gives solid service. No real drop-off here.

---------------------------------------------------------

Bench & Depth
This is where I think the “our pack is terrible” narrative falls apart. The bottom-end losses (Greacen, Su’a, Bryan, Tyrone Thompson) barely played first grade.

Now we’ve got:
  • Cody Hopwood (huge ceiling)
  • Francis Manuela (physical upside)
  • Elijah Sosaia-Lemuana (potential)
  • Matt Croker (reliable first grader)
  • Brodie Jones (solid depth)
It’s younger, yes. But it’s arguably stronger and more athletic.

So in the short term, I’d say there are two clear downgrades — losing Leo Thompson and Kai Pearce-Paul. They’re proven first graders and you don’t just replace that overnight. That said, some of the other changes aren’t as dramatic as people are making out. I’d put Brailey and Hetherington more in the “on par” category — different players coming in, but not a significant drop-off overall.

There are also areas where I actually think we’ve improved. Frizell over Elliott gives us more reliability and leadership, and Jacob over Daniel, based on recent output and durability, could be considered a slight upgrade. When you zoom out and look at the broader squad, the overall depth potential is arguably stronger, even if it’s younger.

Yes, we’ve lost experience. But we’ve also moved on from injury-prone players, freed up cap space, brought in hungry younger forwards, and increased our upside across the pack.

So the real question isn’t “Is our pack terrible?”

It’s whether we’re slightly weaker right now — or whether we’re building something with more long-term upside. If Mooney fires and Hopwood develops the way many think they can, this whole narrative could look very different by Round 10. I'm glass half full, but also not blind.
 
Last edited:
CornChippy said:
I hope i'm wrong, but I had more optimism last year before the season started and we ended up with another spoon.
Click to expand...
You had more optimism last year under AOB.. And before we'd signed Dom Young, Sandon Smith, Dylan Brown, Trey Mooney and before players like Hopwood, McEwen, ESL, Hunt etc had announced themselves? Let alone being a year more progressed and FG ready?

2026 is the first year that I've been genuinely excited about The Knights in many years, for reasons which are almost empirical.

Gagai fell off a cliff after 24'. He wasn't opening teams up by beating his opposing men last year, he lost a yard of pace and it's taken his edge off him. So that's not new, we're phasing Gags out unfortunately. But that's about the only bummer I can think of.

The forward pack is considerably more durable than it was last year. As a matter of fact, not opinion.

If we have even moderate luck with injuries we probably make the 8 imo. Our left edge is the best in the world. A team with that much quality doesnt easily qualify for 'last place'
 
Les Misérables said:
You had more optimism last year under AOB.. And before we'd signed Dom Young, Sandon Smith, Dylan Brown, Trey Mooney and before players like Hopwood, McEwen, ESL, Hunt etc had announced themselves? Let alone being a year more progressed and FG ready?

2026 is the first year that I've been genuinely excited about The Knights in many years, for reasons which are almost empirical.

Gagai fell off a cliff after 24'. He wasn't opening teams up by beating his opposing men last year, he lost a yard of pace and it's taken his edge off him. So that's not new, we're phasing Gags out unfortunately. But that's about the only bummer I can think of.

The forward pack is considerably more durable than it was last year. As a matter of fact, not opinion.

If we have even moderate luck with injuries we probably make the 8 imo. Our left edge is the best in the world. A team with that much quality doesnt easily qualify for 'last place'
Click to expand...
Were currently on different paths lol. In 2025 I was still riding the high of the 2023 winning streak run.

This season I look at teams like Canberra, Brisbane, Dolphins, Warriors, Penrith, Storms etc, their rosters are settled and they are ready to rip in and continue where they left off last year. The only question mark they really have for their season is can they stay injury free.

We have a brand new halves pairing that could take half a season to click (will they click this year?)
Our forward pack that is less experienced than the 2025 spoon pack.
Our best player was in a moon boot only two weeks ago.
New coaches that could take a while to get their plans rolling with the team.
Were still tossing up who is going to be 7 two weeks before round 1.
We have alot of talented youth that are still getting ready for consistent first grade but we need them now.
Where will Sharpe play this season?
Will Ponga play-make too much or let Brown take over?

There are just too many questions for me over the team before the season kicks off.

It feels to me like when we were in the middle of the three spoon seasons. We have the pieces in place but we're just not quite there yet.

I'm excited for the future. I think the future of the club is bright and I can't wait to see Sharpe, Brown and Ponga lighting up the field.

I just think this season is going to be a rough one but I hope I'm wrong.
 
Would be great to see the young forwards not take **** from anyone. It is how the Raiders forwards built year on year. It was not an immediate thing their physicality. It took leadership and self belief based on people underrating you or not rating you at all. Young was always the alpha. He had great supports in Tapine and Papa. We are on the same track as that team IMO if these players actually want it bad enough. The keys are there.
 
frankLauda said:
There’s been a lot of talk about how poor our forward pack is this year. So I thought, I’d take a proper deep dive into it instead of just running with the narrative. Rather than reacting to the names we’ve lost, I compared likely starters vs starters and depth vs depth from 2025 (Dsaf 2024) to the projected 2026 pack.

Here’s how I see it.

Props​

Jacob Saifiti vs Daniel Saifiti (2024)
I’d actually say a slight upgrade here. Jacob has been more consistent recently and has had fewer interruptions due to injuries. Daniel was on big money and underperforming toward the end. Not a huge gap, but I lean toward Jacob.

Trey Mooney vs Leo Thompson
Right now? It’s a downgrade. Leo is a proven, rep-level, and established professional.
But Mooney has serious upside. He dominated the NSW Cup and was stuck behind Canberra’s elite pack. If he gets 40–50 mins weekly, this could look very different by mid-season.

Tyson Frizell vs Adam Elliott
Upgrade for me. Elliott had quality but was constantly injured. Frizell is older but more reliable, has a better career resume, and brings leadership.

Pasami Saulo vs Jack Hetherington
On par. Jack had more experience, but discipline and injuries were issues. Saulo was the Raiders NSW Cup Player of the Year and runs hard and straight. Different profiles, similar overall impact.

-------------------------------------------------

Second Row​

Kai Pearce-Paul vs Jamie McEwen / Tom Cant
This is a downgrade — for now.
KPP is more proven. But I also think we never fully unlocked him. McEwen and Cant are young, raw, and won’t play 80 mins yet. However, there is upside. If one of them kicks on, this gap closes quickly.

Dylan Lucas
No change. He’s a gun. Fringe Origin level. If anything, he’s improving.

Hooker​

Jayden Brailey vs Phoenix Crossland
On par.
They were basically sharing the role anyway. Brailey brought structure but had major injury history. Crossland isn’t flashy but defends well and gives solid service. No real drop-off here.

---------------------------------------------------------

Bench & Depth
This is where I think the “our pack is terrible” narrative falls apart. The bottom-end losses (Greacen, Su’a, Bryan, Tyrone Thompson) barely played first grade.

Now we’ve got:
  • Cody Hopwood (huge ceiling)
  • Francis Manuela (physical upside)
  • Elijah Sosaia-Lemuana (potential)
  • Matt Croker (reliable first grader)
  • Brodie Jones (solid depth)
It’s younger, yes. But it’s arguably stronger and more athletic.

So in the short term, I’d say there are two clear downgrades — losing Leo Thompson and Kai Pearce-Paul. They’re proven first graders and you don’t just replace that overnight. That said, some of the other changes aren’t as dramatic as people are making out. I’d put Brailey and Hetherington more in the “on par” category — different players coming in, but not a significant drop-off overall.

There are also areas where I actually think we’ve improved. Frizell over Elliott gives us more reliability and leadership, and Jacob over Daniel, based on recent output and durability, could be considered a slight upgrade. When you zoom out and look at the broader squad, the overall depth potential is arguably stronger, even if it’s younger.

Yes, we’ve lost experience. But we’ve also moved on from injury-prone players, freed up cap space, brought in hungry younger forwards, and increased our upside across the pack.

So the real question isn’t “Is our pack terrible?”

It’s whether we’re slightly weaker right now — or whether we’re building something with more long-term upside. If Mooney fires and Hopwood develops the way many think they can, this whole narrative could look very different by Round 10. I'm glass half full, but also not blind.
Click to expand...
Good analysis and agree with your points. Would really hope that Saulo offers more than Etherington though.
 
CornChippy said:
Were currently on different paths lol. In 2025 I was still riding the high of the 2023 winning streak run.

This season I look at teams like Canberra, Brisbane, Dolphins, Warriors, Penrith, Storms etc, their rosters are settled and they are ready to rip in and continue where they left off last year. The only question mark they really have for their season is can they stay injury free.

We have a brand new halves pairing that could take half a season to click (will they click this year?)
Our forward pack that is less experienced than the 2025 spoon pack.
Our best player was in a moon boot only two weeks ago.
New coaches that could take a while to get their plans rolling with the team.
Were still tossing up who is going to be 7 two weeks before round 1.
We have alot of talented youth that are still getting ready for consistent first grade but we need them now.
Where will Sharpe play this season?
Will Ponga play-make too much or let Brown take over?

There are just too many questions for me over the team before the season kicks off.

It feels to me like when we were in the middle of the three spoon seasons. We have the pieces in place but we're just not quite there yet.

I'm excited for the future. I think the future of the club is bright and I can't wait to see Sharpe, Brown and Ponga lighting up the field.

I just think this season is going to be a rough one but I hope I'm wrong.
Click to expand...
Very much my thinking at this stage too. I hope it’s not a spoon, but if injuries hit hard again we’ll be in trouble. But it is definitely a rebuilding year, imo. I’m expecting us to be pretty inconsistent.
 
The key to me this year is our defence. Our attack never really got going last year at any point. Our defence on the other hand was still ranked third after we suffered that devastating loss at home to the warriors and fell off a cliff after that, basically a morale thing. Defensively is where we will miss Leo and KPP the most. But if we get back the grit we showed in defence for most of last year just through the morale uptick that Holbrook has provided, I'm sure our attack will be at least 6 points a game better and we will be in most games. Even with injuries, we still have some more dynamic depth when it comes to scoring some points.
 
I’m expecting a slow start to the year. I’ll be shocked if we get the spoon again. Injuries and than ultimately morale, we lost our way. Barring an injury crisis like last year we won’t get the spoon. The comp is that tight it will come down to injuries es and who’s available.
 
frankLauda said:
There’s been a lot of talk about how poor our forward pack is this year. So I thought, I’d take a proper deep dive into it instead of just running with the narrative. Rather than reacting to the names we’ve lost, I compared likely starters vs starters and depth vs depth from 2025 (Dsaf 2024) to the projected 2026 pack.

Here’s how I see it.

Props​

Jacob Saifiti vs Daniel Saifiti (2024)
I’d actually say a slight upgrade here. Jacob has been more consistent recently and has had fewer interruptions due to injuries. Daniel was on big money and underperforming toward the end. Not a huge gap, but I lean toward Jacob.

Trey Mooney vs Leo Thompson
Right now? It’s a downgrade. Leo is a proven, rep-level, and established professional.
But Mooney has serious upside. He dominated the NSW Cup and was stuck behind Canberra’s elite pack. If he gets 40–50 mins weekly, this could look very different by mid-season.

Tyson Frizell vs Adam Elliott
Upgrade for me. Elliott had quality but was constantly injured. Frizell is older but more reliable, has a better career resume, and brings leadership.

Pasami Saulo vs Jack Hetherington
On par. Jack had more experience, but discipline and injuries were issues. Saulo was the Raiders NSW Cup Player of the Year and runs hard and straight. Different profiles, similar overall impact.

-------------------------------------------------

Second Row​

Kai Pearce-Paul vs Jamie McEwen / Tom Cant
This is a downgrade — for now.
KPP is more proven. But I also think we never fully unlocked him. McEwen and Cant are young, raw, and won’t play 80 mins yet. However, there is upside. If one of them kicks on, this gap closes quickly.

Dylan Lucas
No change. He’s a gun. Fringe Origin level. If anything, he’s improving.

Hooker​

Jayden Brailey vs Phoenix Crossland
On par.
They were basically sharing the role anyway. Brailey brought structure but had major injury history. Crossland isn’t flashy but defends well and gives solid service. No real drop-off here.

---------------------------------------------------------

Bench & Depth
This is where I think the “our pack is terrible” narrative falls apart. The bottom-end losses (Greacen, Su’a, Bryan, Tyrone Thompson) barely played first grade.

Now we’ve got:
  • Cody Hopwood (huge ceiling)
  • Francis Manuela (physical upside)
  • Elijah Sosaia-Lemuana (potential)
  • Matt Croker (reliable first grader)
  • Brodie Jones (solid depth)
It’s younger, yes. But it’s arguably stronger and more athletic.

So in the short term, I’d say there are two clear downgrades — losing Leo Thompson and Kai Pearce-Paul. They’re proven first graders and you don’t just replace that overnight. That said, some of the other changes aren’t as dramatic as people are making out. I’d put Brailey and Hetherington more in the “on par” category — different players coming in, but not a significant drop-off overall.

There are also areas where I actually think we’ve improved. Frizell over Elliott gives us more reliability and leadership, and Jacob over Daniel, based on recent output and durability, could be considered a slight upgrade. When you zoom out and look at the broader squad, the overall depth potential is arguably stronger, even if it’s younger.

Yes, we’ve lost experience. But we’ve also moved on from injury-prone players, freed up cap space, brought in hungry younger forwards, and increased our upside across the pack.

So the real question isn’t “Is our pack terrible?”

It’s whether we’re slightly weaker right now — or whether we’re building something with more long-term upside. If Mooney fires and Hopwood develops the way many think they can, this whole narrative could look very different by Round 10. I'm glass half full, but also not blind.
Click to expand...

Hey mate our pack was and is still terrible, we have some talented young kids developing, Hopwood, ESL and McEwen but they are still 2-3 years from hitting in their peak, 1 fringe first grade who could be very good in Mooney, a average first grader in Safiti, Friz hopefully is in his last year and whilst okay is 3-4 years past his best. Only Lucas is a bonafide star who is odds on to play Origin if fit this year.

Aside from that your Crokers, Psaulos and Croft's would most likely not see a top 30 contract in a decent team.

I am more optimistic than most and like the direction the club is going forward wise but this year and next year too most likely we dead set suck when it comes to middles.

Souths recruit Fifita and Haas and we get excited over recruiting a NSW cup prop shows how bad our forward pack is.
 
Grandpa Joe said:
Hey mate our pack was and is still terrible, we have some talented young kids developing, Hopwood, ESL and McEwen but they are still 2-3 years from hitting in their peak, 1 fringe first grade who could be very good in Mooney, a average first grader in Safiti, Friz hopefully is in his last year and whilst okay is 3-4 years past his best. Only Lucas is a bonafide star who is odds on to play Origin if fit this year.

Aside from that your Crokers, Psaulos and Croft's would most likely not see a top 30 contract in a decent team.

I am more optimistic than most and like the direction the club is going forward wise but this year and next year too most likely we dead set suck when it comes to middles.

Souths recruit Fifita and Haas and we get excited over recruiting a NSW cup prop shows how bad our forward pack is.
Click to expand...
Fifita is completely overrated. He’s a glorified centre.
Haas. Goes without saying.
Neither goes to Souths unless Bennett is there. They did not sign with Souths. They signed with Bennett. Haas has a get out clause if Bennett leaves.
 
Grandpa Joe said:
Hey mate our pack was and is still terrible, we have some talented young kids developing, Hopwood, ESL and McEwen but they are still 2-3 years from hitting in their peak, 1 fringe first grade who could be very good in Mooney, a average first grader in Safiti, Friz hopefully is in his last year and whilst okay is 3-4 years past his best. Only Lucas is a bonafide star who is odds on to play Origin if fit this year.

Aside from that your Crokers, Psaulos and Croft's would most likely not see a top 30 contract in a decent team.

I am more optimistic than most and like the direction the club is going forward wise but this year and next year too most likely we dead set suck when it comes to middles.

Souths recruit Fifita and Haas and we get excited over recruiting a NSW cup prop shows how bad our forward pack is.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was on the money lol.
 
HarVeeGee13 said:
Serious post - I’m gonna do tiers:

Contenders: Roosters, Panthers, Sharks
Good, but not contenders: Storm, Bulldogs, Dolphins
Peloton of mediocrity: Knights, Broncos, Raiders, Wahs, Eels
***/spoon contenders: Sea Eagles, Titans, Tigers, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Cowboys

I think a lot of these explain themselves but I will justify a few:

Roosters - Deepest team in the comp. I think people questioning the DCE thing are crazy, and it’s hard to overstate what an upgrade on Savala he is even at this age and he’ll look amazing playing in a dinner suit behind that pack. Also Robson is potentially the signing of the season, will stiffen up that middle so much. They are going to cruise to the minor premiership IMO and will get more rest/have the fittest squad primed for finals.

Panthers - They are clearly not done. Still have more winning knowhow and better systems than everyone else. Not a juggernaut anymore but I’m not betting against them and they don’t have a lot of roster churn to figure out early in the season this time so they’ll be good right away.

Sharks - I really think they demonstrated that they’re a serious team now in the 25 finals. I don’t think they have a good enough team overall to win it all but it wouldn’t shock me if they did.

Storm - They’re never “bad” but they are about to enter into another thing where they turn over a lot of the squad IMO, a lot of the team is sneaky old now, and in the past they’ve dipped down into 5-8 during those periods. Katoa is a massive loss, he’s their second best player, and their depth has kind of been decimated.

Dolphins - If it’s not going to happen this year they’re actually in a bit of trouble IMO.

Knights - Wanted to put them in the “good” tier but realistically we have a lot of unproven forwards. Also don’t love that there is apparently still uncertainty about who’s playing where in the spine when IMO we finally now have square pegs for our square holes. I don’t think any team has a larger range in terms of where they could potentially finish.

Broncos - Won the comp off the back of having the best players in the game right now playing at an all time great level + absurd fitness levels, rather than like a really great culture/systems, and they also won it all in a very lucky, hard to replicate way. I don’t think they’ve become a different team overnight and are going to continue to yo yo between amazing and meh. Also just think they are very likely to get key player injuries. I’m going to pick them as a top four team when they replace Reyno with Pezet though.

Raiders - Fluky minor premiership - 14 win team that had everything break their way for an entire season. Replacing Fogarty with an inexperienced 7 (who they don’t think is ready) makes them a 8-12 win team.

Wahs - Didn’t 100% buy they were as good as ladder position indicated.

Sea Eagles - Another “you all don’t realise how good DCE is” take. More likely to finish last than be in the fight for the 8. Even with Fogarty who’s at least okay.
Click to expand...
Follow up to this. Gonna add finals predictions.

Grand final: Roosters vs Panthers

I don’t see who else has the cattle (besides Brisbane). Interesting matchup aside from how much it would suck for the usual suspects to be in there again.

The two teams have the opposite questions about them - the Roosters are young, do they have the steel for three straight finals games (Robson should help with that)? I suspect they’ll be in great shape come finals though which will help, I think they’ll sleepwalk to the minor premiership, their depth is truly disgusting.

With the Panthers, I honestly think Edwards and Yeo are in decline as players, which makes sense with the miles of hard yakka they have on the clock. The question for them is whether Penrith’s institutional strength/winning culture/ability to time their run can once again get them over the line despite - in my opinion - not having the best team on paper. One thing to watch out for is how Cleary manages the workloads of Yeo/Edwards/Leota/Martin even at the cost of dropping a few regular season games.

Only other teams I think can win it are Brisbane - I just think they’ll be one of the teams which puts up a **** title defence, not for any logical reason, but they are a team that defies logic - and Cronulla, I just think they’re missing a little something.


Dally M - Isaiya Katoa
 
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