2026 Ladder Predictions

"The Lab" is a predictive model which makes its predictions based on past data, consequently the predicted ladder it spits out looks a lot like the 2025 ladder. It's only predicting notably different ladder positions for the Roosters, Raiders and Warriors. The Knights were easily the worst team in the NRL, this is of course going to be a big factor in what the machine "thinks" is going to happen going forward.

You're only going to get a big jump in what it predicts if you remove players who barely play or the data indicates have little value and replace them with experienced guys who are very good and consistent. It's not weird at all or "bias" that it's predicting the Roosters - a basically unchanged top 8 team with a great F/A differential, except for replacing Savala/Townsend with DCE, Sandon with a fit Sam Walker, and Cheese with Reece Robson - will win the minor premiership.

Conversely, the Raiders won the minor premiership with meh F/A for a 19-5 team and won something like 9 of their 10 close games. They are replacing Fogarty with "?". So the model thinks they'll be significantly worse. And it doesn't like the Warriors much, another team that won basically every close game they had. It points to at least some degree of luck.

Our optimism for next season is built around guys we believe will be very good for us but who don't have a lot of NRL data behind them - Mooney has mostly played Cup, Hopwood very young, I guarantee statistical models paint McEwen as a negative player right now, Ponga misses half of every season, Dylan Brown was quiet at the Eels and didn't play that much, Sandon Smith looks like he's on the cusp of being good rather than already really good, etc.

Getting mad at this is like getting mad at a calculator for answering "4" when it was asked for the answer to "two plus two and also a secret third number you don't know anything about". What data would it be basing a prediction of improvement for us on?
 
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slotmachine said:
If we get a few injuries in the forwards "the lab" might be close to the mark. We're 3 away from a middle rotation of Saulo, Crokes, Cant, Jones, Hola, and who knows.

So everyone cross their fingers.
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We have more than one Achilles Heel.

Halfback / Hooker is probably the other. If either of our starters go down we're left with only a 5/8th (Gamble) to play 7 and a utility forward (Graham) to play 9 - assuming Arthur hasnt improved out of site over the off season.

That said, I reckon Gamble would do a decent job at 7. Day light between him and either of Brown or Sharpe in that role imo
 
Les Misérables said:
We have more than one Achilles Heel.

Halfback / Hooker is probably the other. If either of our starters go down we're left with only a 5/8th (Gamble) to play 7 and a utility forward (Graham) to play 9 - assuming Arthur hasnt improved out of site over the off season.

That said, I reckon Gamble would do a decent job at 7. Day light between him and either of Brown or Sharpe in that role imo
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Yeah was just going to add there’s very little depth for the game management role in the team, as well.

Personally I don’t have the confidence some others do about this year. I think it could be a real struggle, especially if injuries hit. Actually had a dream we got lapped by 40-50 in Las Vegas haha.
 
Les Misérables said:
We have more than one Achilles Heel.

Halfback / Hooker is probably the other. If either of our starters go down we're left with only a 5/8th (Gamble) to play 7 and a utility forward (Graham) to play 9 - assuming Arthur hasnt improved out of site over the off season.

That said, I reckon Gamble would do a decent job at 7. Day light between him and either of Brown or Sharpe in that role imo
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Interested to see how Graham goes to be honest. Thought perhaps Arthur would have been favoured but no arguments from me to say he’s not a FG prospect. Last season showed little confidence.
Who does that leave us with apart from Sandon who I’d prefer to keep solid in halves rotation and gamble .. another half?
 
Nightsondee said:
Interested to see how Graham goes to be honest. Thought perhaps Arthur would have been favoured but no arguments from me to say he’s not a FG prospect. Last season showed little confidence.
Who does that leave us with apart from Sandon who I’d prefer to keep solid in halves rotation and gamble .. another half?
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Apparently there is a young gun from Parramatta(Winter?) I think, who is a genuine half in the traditional sense of the word.
 
Matty Hunter is the specialist half from Parra. Toby Winter is our SG Ball and Aus Schoolboy star from last year.

Nightsondee said:
Interested to see how Graham goes to be honest. Thought perhaps Arthur would have been favoured but no arguments from me to say he’s not a FG prospect. Last season showed little confidence.
Who does that leave us with apart from Sandon who I’d prefer to keep solid in halves rotation and gamble .. another half?
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I personally really like Arthur, and was a little surprised by how far off FG he looked when he actually debuted. Maybe he has improved, he's still crazy young for a 9. Just not expecting miracles from him. Holbrook has him down the list from the looks of the trial teamsheet
 
Les Misérables said:
Matty Hunter is the specialist half from Parra. Toby Winter is our SG Ball and Aus Schoolboy star from last year.



I personally really like Arthur, and was a little surprised by how far off FG he looked when he actually debuted. Maybe he has improved, he's still crazy young for a 9. Just not expecting miracles from him. Holbrook has him down the list from the looks of the trial teamsheet
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I just think he hasn’t fired - yes he’s still young but debuted 2 years ago. Think it’s been a bit of a push forward. See how graham goes.
 
Arthur in the NRL looked a bit lost, and he also did at the start in the nsw cup.

Although at the back end of the 2025 nsw cup season he actually was starting to look really good, not sure if he was free as his brother was halfback or not but as Les said Arthur is very young still and can improve.

I would have liked us to get a veteran hooker but obviously they didn’t see one they thought would help us, hopefully Graham can take this opportunity.

I would say Arthur needs to show improvement this year for sure
 
jamesgould said:
Yeah was just going to add there’s very little depth for the game management role in the team, as well.

Personally I don’t have the confidence some others do about this year. I think it could be a real struggle, especially if injuries hit. Actually had a dream we got lapped by 40-50 in Las Vegas haha.
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Oh and I forgot to add about the dream, the forum was in total meltdown. 😂
 
I don’t understand why we get offended by people predicting us to go bad. We sucked something awful last year so it’s a pretty natural choice.

For the record I think we’ll improve and be close to the 8 but I can see why others think we’ll struggle. It’ll be great to prove them wrong.
 
I could take us "sucking something aweful" if we had like, ya know, half our bloody top 17 healthy for most of the year.
 
Treadly said:
I could take us "sucking something aweful" if we had like, ya know, half our bloody top 17 healthy for most of the year.
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Seems most fans just arent paying that much attention to us. It's why they'll be so confused when we knock off some top teams early in the year. And we will.
 
I think people underestimate the loss of most of our top players for a lot of the year. Everyone talks about Souths injuries and although we weren’t that bad I say we weren’t far off the quality of players missing.

Injured list all for a substantial time:
KP, Lucus, Best, Elliot, Herthington, Sharpe, Saffiti, Gamble.
 
jamesgould said:
Yeah was just going to add there’s very little depth for the game management role in the team, as well.

Personally I don’t have the confidence some others do about this year. I think it could be a real struggle, especially if injuries hit. Actually had a dream we got lapped by 40-50 in Las Vegas haha.
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More like a knight-mare ( dad joke- sorry )

Watching the fox footy podcast with Fletch and Hindy , they said they were interviewing players recently up here and said the difference between this year’s players morale and last year’s was very noticeable. Fletch said it was “ like a weight had been lifted off their shoulders “ , and they were very positive about their chances this year.
Personally I think we will finish just outside the 8, but with big steps forward particularly in attack, and more spirited performances than we saw last year.
And number 1 on my wish list is - win at least 7-8 home games.
 
Our starting 13 is a top 6 team. Firmly in the top 6.

Our 17 is a top 8 team.

Our top 30 is a bottom 8 team.

It'll be a mixture of injuries and form / development of emerging guys like Hopwood that will determine whether we finish in the top 6 or miss the 8. But on our day with a healthy roster, there's no one we won't be able to tuck in
 
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