The NBA Thread

Haha yeah I don't want to go the early crow - I hated him in the draft and thought he was gonna bust, and I very often have take lock with these sorts of things, reluctant to give up my bias even though he's clearly been a good NBA player - but yeah I think he's just a role player. A handy, unique one, but way closer to like a Myles Turner with some sliders adjusted than the "white KD + perennial all defensive player" he was hyped as.

And yeah that's a dilemma for them. Being the 2nd draft pick who has panned out as a good player almost guarantees it's gonna be very hard to keep him on significantly less than a max. Look at the bag Jalen Green, who arguably isn't even good, got.

And you could very likely get a huge haul for trading him, and keep churning through draft picks. They'd be able to keep all of Dort, Wallace, Joe & whoever else they like who isn't in the rotation yet, plus they'd be able to keep bringing in new young Cason Wallaces and Lu Dorts. And they looked like contenders without him too. It's been very funny to me listening to pundits talk about how good the Thunder were "when they didn't even have Chet in the lineup" - honestly I think he's at most their fifth best & most important player right now. Dort and Caruso impact winning more. Advanced stats point to Hartenstein being a better player too. But that shows the regard he's held in, and it's inflated by the draft hype.

Shai, JDub & 5-6 very good role players is an every year contender for about 8 years. Shai, JDub, Chet and a handful of average to poor role players? I don't know that that's still a contender.
 
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Draftwise I thought he would go where he did, it was a weird night cause no one had any idea who was going #1 overall. Not even Woj. Chet seemed the odd one out it seemed between Smith Jr and Paolo as Chet's fit wasn't really needed by Orlando, they needed someone with Paolo's scoring. And the Rockets needed a scorer as well to compliment the guys they drafted having drafted Sengun the year before. Even if they had the 2nd pick I was really hoping they wouldn't go with him. At least with the Thunder they already had their scorers so it made sense.

Between Paolo and let's say J Dub there aren't a whole lot of guys you'd give the max to in that draft, if any. Murray's stocks should improve with the trades the Kings have made, Ivey is alright. Dyson will probably be in that second tier of guys as well.

Shai's extension price also went up because of his MVP award but that's still a ways down the road.

I can still see him being a starter somewhere whether it's the Thunder or somewhere else but like you said you don't want him being your second or third best guy.
 
I think he can be your third best guy, but with the new CBA that only works if he doesn't take the max. Really teams can only afford two max players now I think.

If he agrees to an extension more like the one JJJ did, they're laughing.
 
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Who wins game 7 in OKC?

I don't mind who wins tbh, it's great to see a couple of franchises (discounting the Sonics) win their first title...especially as virtually every player on either team will be getting their first. I think only Siakam (Raptors) and Caruso (Lakers) have rings.

My guess is OKC wins, but I'm leaning to the Pacers.
 
I expect the Thunder role players to be better at home but there’s always those outlier variables that you just can’t predict in the last game of the season.
Look at even 2016 Steph was in the most insane purple patch you can think of all season (50/40/90) and could make them from anywhere so long as there was time on the clock and in G7 he struggles. Wide open ones he can make with his eyes closed were misses.
That’s the sort of stuff you can’t envision and you can’t prepare for. As coaches it will be interesting to see how prepared Daigenault will be.

I will put it out there. I think the Pacers can win G7, I think they have a genuine shot. Not just saying that to be a contrarian or different but I’ve seen enough in this series.
And not just because the last three times the team that has led 3-2 in a Finals has lost.

It may not matter if the Thunder come out and smash them in the mouth early but it’s really only been the one game from them which has been a blowout from start to finish. The Pacers have always found a way to reel it back in.

If I’m them I’m just throwing bodies at Shai, make things difficult, make him drive. He got a bit too ambitious splitting those hedge blitzes at the screen last game. But it was from having success at it G2.
Just lots of good counters on counters in this series which has made it an enjoyable series.
Enjoy G7 men!
 
Anyway as expected Durant traded, to Rockets. Thought the Rockets did excellent not to give up anyone too big of note, imagine the information they got from this seasons playoffs was a strong indicator who they’d trade (Hello Jalen Green). Fit wise, it’s good. You don’t have to tear things down if it doesn’t work because of the young guys they have.
The other teams linked…didn’t seem to want to give up too much. Pat being cheap I thought the scenarios there for the Heat weren’t ridiculous either. I must not be as high on Ware as other people lol. They must have a plan to really play him more going forward.
The only gamble for the Rockets is his age, keeping him healthy in this window. Assuming he signs a 1+1 or something after which is probably why trade choices were limited but essentially if he stays healthy it’s a max 3 year window but moreso 2-3. You don’t need him to do more then what you already know he can at that stage of his career.
 
That's an insane fleece for the Rockets, that pick should be the price for salary dumping Jalen Green. KD is one of the few players the Thunder don't have great cover for defensively and if I'm the Rockets I want to go for it now before I'm dealing with a maximised Wemby + all star teammates every year, as good as OKC are.

I can't believe they didn't have to give anyone else up, not even Whitmore who's just an athletic project who may be years away from being good. Still question marks about the spacing with Amen and Sengun on the floor but this is no longer a team which will be a non-factor in the playoffs.

Centre: Sengun, Adams
Forwards: KD, Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason
Guards: FVV, Amen.

Crying out for a good backup guard (I guess this is Reed Sheppard's opportunity) but that's a really good playoff rotation.
 
The Haliburton Achilles rupture is just devastating. Sport sucks sometimes.

Pacers did so well to hold on for as long as they could but eventually without him out there you could see their offence gradually fall away from what it's good at.
 
Best team all season wins it, so that's not a bad result. Feel sorry for the Pacers, particularly Tyreese. A tough way to end a great season. I hope they bounce back next season; the Pacers have been one of the most enjoyable teams to watch.
 
Yeah it sucks and it’s devastating. You saw how he started off, it’s not ridiculous to think how close it would have been otherwise. Just without him and his playmaking and ball movement the turnovers end up showing, no answer to the Thunder throwing blitzes and trapping their guys. Play after play.

Only thing I think Pacers could have done more is empty the tank with their starters. Just sat at periods when Thunder were gaining momentum but otherwise thought Rick did another fantastic job calling TOs to halt momentum when they made turnovers in their own half court and then when Thunder were easily getting offensive rebounds and too many second chances. Just weren’t getting enough out of some bench guys.
I do realise it’s a bit ironic with Halliburton’s injury but I do think it was bad luck they would have been cautious with him at times. If he played on.

Then the Thunder made those 3 3s in a row from guys they count on to and that’s it. Pacers thought it would be a good idea to keep running plays through McConnell for several straight minutes heh.
Thunder were the best team overall all season so deserved winners.

But without trying to be disrespectful after those brutal injuries the rest of the East is wide open now…if you’re the Bucks and Giannis you work something out, Philly should be good, Cleveland, Orlando, Miami. Just very interesting times ahead
 
Yep Giannis is staying.

I’ve got a friend who’s a diehard Knicks fan and he’s trying hard to keep a lid on how he feels about next season now. No Tatum no Dame no Tyrese.

I don’t buy into the Cavs at all until they sack up and trade one of Garland and Mitchell (realistically, it’ll be Garland). They’re not a playoff team until they do that.

The Magic should be good but I think they need Paolo to take a leap before they get anywhere.

Pistons are very very interesting because they have a lot of scope to do stuff to improve the roster. But Cade is legitimately great now & as much as I love watching the Pacers play, the most likely road to an every year contender is a big ball handler who’s an offensive engine + a good second option scorer + a lot of good role players. They’re my team to watch in the East for the next few years because if they make the right moves I think they can be very good very fast.
 
Yeah wrapped up in all the buzz and talk I forgot about the Pistons. Harris was just there to fill a roster spot and provide veteran presence lol, not help them win. Beasley is off contract so they’ll have to decide on that. The guys around Cade, Solid for sure. Goes back to hiring a good coach.
Even that Knicks series, close as you can get, Brunson going off at the right time made it a different story.

Imagine being Durant staying in the West too. I know he said Miami was a preferred destination but imagine if he got traded to the East, after that Halliburton injury. He’s laughing (at his playoffs path). Since we all still like to joke about Durant joining winning teams on the up. You’re basically already a top 2-3 team there.

But anyway Free Agency is always fun. Plus any trades before hand.
 
Oh and the Thunder…they have that Topic kid they drafted last year who was rehabbing an ACL and looked more likely to go in the top 10. The fact he went 12 or whatever it was knowing he would miss his first full season tells you what teams think of him. Also kind of explains why Giddey was expendable without the jumper in comparison.

If he’s anything like Goran Dragic or Milos Teodesic they have a solid role guy who could start elsewhere for a few years.
 
I have no idea what to expect from Topic, I watched film of him and thought that the way he drives won’t work against NBA defenders who can move their feet a lot better, and I don’t think he played that well in the Euroleague as opposed to the lower domestic league competition. But plenty of these Euro guys surprise people.
 
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Hoping Alex Toohey gets drafted. He played for our jr club for a while (and I remember processing a registration for him when I was volunteering for the club). I don't know if the club had much to do with his trajectory, probably not, but it would still be a nice boost for a small volunteer-run jr club.

www.foxsports.com.au

‘This is real’: The unseen act, Goorjian chat and ‘reboot’ behind NBA Draft prospect Alex Toohey’s rise

‘This is real’: The unseen act that proves Aussie NBA Draft prospect is a ‘10 out of 10’
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au
 
Draft is tomorrow. Throwing this up here for posterity rather than doing the "oh I knew this guy was good when I was watching draft stuff" in a year or two.

My belief with the draft is that if you're picking in the top half of the lottery, you have to bet on upside. You can't tank a whole season away and then take a "safe" pick... complete waste of time. If your upside bet hits you've found a new star, if they miss whatever, you tank again. The worst thing you can do is take players who are guaranteed to help you get to the middle.

Harvey's Possibly Unhinged Draft Lottery Big Board

- Tier One - 'All Time Great Prospects' - Almost certain multiple time All-NBA/Top Ten player

1. Cooper Flagg - Gets comped to Scottie Pippen a lot, but honestly the defensive activity/versatility & offensive upside has him looking like a Kevin Garnett/Jayson Tatum hybrid out there. Unquestionably one of the ten best prospects of the 21st century so far, and closer to 5 than 10 for me.

- Tier Two - 'Elite Prospect' - Safe All Star bet with All-NBA upside

2. Dylan Harper - Looks like a sure thing to me to be at least a really really good lead guard because of his outlier driving/finishing ability. Looks like a taller Jalen Brunson with shades of James Harden out there. If he didn't have bad off the dribble shooting numbers, it'd be a real debate for the #1 pick. But he has everything else you'd want in a lead guard in the modern game.

- Tier Three - 'Great Prospect' - All Star potential, high likelihood of being good NBA starter if star upside doesn't pan out

3. VJ Edgecombe - Great athletic tools, plays the right way, absolute dawg defensively. Most optimistic outcome is a more polished prime Oladipo, but something like Derrick White+ is arguably the median outcome here. Great prospect.

4. Tre Johnson - Probably the best pure shooter in the draft besides that midget Reed Sheppard since Tyler Herro, so that would allay concerns about the lack of rim pressure. Combines the shooting with good playmaking. I think his absolute worst outcome is Buddy Hield.

- Tier Four - 'Boom or Bust' - All Star potential, but these guys may be borderline unplayable/losing players if they're not stars.

5. Derik Queen - Very, very high on Queen. I just watch him and I see one of these Euro offensive hubs like Sengun, walking mismatches on offense with great skill for the size and amazing hands... who are absolute slugs on defence. As always the question is whether the offence is good enough that you just build out a defence around him to account for it. But even if it's not, if you end up with a 20/12/6 offensive hub who you can't actually win a title with... someone will trade for him anyway, and you get a nice haul to build a different way.

6. Ace Bailey - Has slid for obvious reasons, absolute pelican, but I can't watch 20 seconds of his film then put him any lower than this. High end outcome is an elite two way wing like a Paul George, low end is the league's new premier tank commander.

- Tier Five - 'BORING' - The borderline arbitrary cut off point where I'm okay with just taking guys I think might just be good NBA players rather than stars

7. Carter Bryant - Lab grown 3 & D wing. I'm falling asleep just thinking about talking him, but also I hope he falls to my Spurs at 14.

8. Kasparas Jakucionis - Big table-setting traditional PG who can shoot. Very little athleticism and is a complete pick and roll merchant in terms of getting his own shot, but the playmaking is real to my eye, and the range of outcomes here is good starting point guard <-> good backup point guard. The Phoenix Suns should pick him if available.

9. Thomas Sorber - Another one where I can't understand his common big board position at around 20-25. Good physical measurements, was a great rim protector in college (tough, strong, physical) with the versatility to step to the perimeter, and there's real connective playmaking stuff there. Posted a great steal rate for a big on top of his strong block rate, which points to great processing speed. The safest bet of all the bigs in this draft to be a really good ten year+ pro if you ask me.

10. Cedric Coward - See Bryant, Carter, but make him older, and give him more offensive polish due to him being so old. Slight risk of him being a guy who wants to be an iso merchant, but I just like the mix of physicals and all the chat about how hard he works tbh. Elite defensive upside.

11. Nique Clifford - Good role playing wing prospect #3, this one more of a Josh Hart style connector. He'll be a good player and if I was the Knicks I'd be burning some draft capital to try to get into this draft to get him - ready to go versatile wing depth on a cheap contract is what they need if they're gonna have a real chance at winning next season.

12. Kon Knueppel - Do not understand at all how an unathletic white wing with a neutral wingspan is appearing at #3 on so many big boards. He's a guy who projects purely as a good 4th/5th starter/"glue guy" as his most optimistic eval, and a guy who's unplayable if he can't keep up with NBA athletes. Late lottery is fine, but the third pick?

- Tier Six - Exactly the same as tier four, except the guys here are 6 foot tall guards

13. Jeremiah Fears - He's just insanely good at getting into the paint. That's something. But he can't shoot? I dunno. I'm honestly just putting him in here so I can say I saw it as a real possibility he could be a star if that does happen.

14. Walter Clayton Jr - Same eval as Fears, except this guy's not very athletic but an elite shot maker, who led his team to the NCAA championship. So here he is, just so if he's the next Jalen Brunson, I can say, ah yes, Walter Clayton Jr, I knew he was special!


Guys I Don't Like

I didn't like what I saw of Colin Murray-Boyles but I get why some do. I think he's a bust though and the evaluators who really like him are betting on an archetype where there are few successful outcomes for a reason.

Maluach to me is a complete stiff who can't catch and the actual defensive production isn't good apparently so... no idea why there's hype there.

Noa Essengue is my strongest, most ironclad, 100% BUST prospect of all the guys getting real draft hype that I looked into. The tape is awful. Yuck yuck yuck. Congratulations Raptors on drafting another guy with great measurements who can't actually play.
 
I'm interested to see where Rocco ends up. If he's fortunate someone may take a swing on his upside late in the first round. Carve out a role like guys like Walker Kessler or Donovan Clingan have. His tape is not as spectacular as other guys but his size and tools being young have potential for upside. Plenty to work on though for whoever does decide to take a swing.

There is still another day (overnight for us) to get back into the draft this year to make trades, get picks, etc. Indiana did a good job to get back into the first round.

Teams likely waiting till the last possible minute in hope other teams are enquiring see what they can size up for their assets. Boston were listening to offers for other guys like Brown/White for example but it seems nothing yet fancies them.

As expected, Boston shedding salary to get under the 2nd apron without having to give up much at all is going to be the envy (or hate) from everyone else.

Nets have something like five picks (inc one in the top 10). They may move up if they love a guy and attach one of their 20s picks in there. We'll see.

Assuming with that trade of Poole, Washington will be going totally younger (on top of the 6th overall pick in this years draft), so I don't expect guys like McCollum, Middleton, Smart to hang around too long towards the following season. Some intriguing options for buyers, might need to buy out Middleton.
 
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I think Washington should & will keep one of those guys as the smart vet in the room (CJ?). They really like Carrington I think. The player they'll take if available is Bailey.
 
Yep he's untouchable. I think Couilbaly as well is a part of thet key young core, with Sarr and lets say Ace for the sake of it. Then you have a few other young guys carving out roles such as Vukevic, Champagnie, Kyshawn George.
Bey, Brodgon, Holmes and Kispert could fill out roles there as well if they go in that direction.

Only reason re: CJ is this is the last year on a contract and whether he walks/stays on a <25 win team at his age is a tough ask. Poole was too good to waste away for another two years on that team, even though Pelicans are kinda treading water and not going uphill fast but they're on a better timeline. Not that I expected drastic improvements from them either.

And Smart who's also on expiring and who they'd likely get less for to be able to fill that role all season.

Potentially start with one or two of them in the starting lineup, or you could have all three of the veterans hypothetically and if the wins don't show have the fire sale at some point.
 
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