1. Penrith - This machine runs on spite and I’m sure they’ll find someone who “writes them off” by saying something offensive to them like “yes they’re the greatest team of the NRL era, but surely FOUR premierships in a row is impossible in a salary cap competition”.
2. Broncos - I think their losses from the first choice squad are bigger than Penrith’s (Flegler for example plays twice as many minutes as Leniu) and they won’t be able to coast as much as last year, but I do think the gap between the top two and the rest was massive last year and I don’t think they’ll come back to the pack enough to finish lower.
3. Knights - AOB finally got a decent run of games not disrupted by injury over which we built cohesion and identity. I think other teams will come after us a bit harder next year, but I think we’ll be too good at scoring points to not win about 16 games. We were actually unlucky to only win 14 last year.
4. Storm - On paper they should miss the 8, I think they’ll get towelled by some good sides, but the year will end and somehow they’ll have enough wins to finish in the top four again.
5. Sharks - Easy draw again. They’re good at scoring points. That wins you a bunch of regular season games. First week finals exit again.
6. Warriors - I don’t think they were frauds or anything, just won a couple more games than they should have. More reliant on one player than any other team but I’m gonna assume he plays most of the year again.
7. Roosters - I think there are fundamental issues with their roster they still haven’t addressed, but they show a lot of ticker and heart and have many high care factor players.
8. Cowboys - Just squeak in after a promising season is derailed by injuries and inconsistency.
9. Eels - They’re done as a contender, and I don’t really rate the coach - IMO one grand final appearance isn’t a good return after having a strong, cohesive roster and fewer injuries than every other team for about 5 years. Probably too good to keep sliding though.
10. Dolphins - Will continue to build behind what is developing into a pretty formidable pack with a potentially top tier spine. Contenders within a few seasons.
11. Titans - Des Hasler bounce. But they’ll still not be actually good. Meh, unbalanced roster and league-worst culture (tied with Wests). Des will get them humming with the ball though so they won’t be outright awful.
12. Rabbitohs - Maybe I’m overreacting, but I really think there are serious issues behind the scenes there and they’re on the slide in a big way. Demetriou won’t last the year.
13. Dragons - First of the genuinely bad teams. Probably the worst roster in the comp but they do have a dig, and Flanno should make them even tougher.
14. Raiders - If I could short any one stock in the NRL it’d be this. This is about where they should have finished last year and I hate Wighton but him walking out on them will be an issue psychologically as much as anything.
15. Sea Eagles - I don’t like predicting players will get injured, but at this stage predicting Tommy Turbo will play more than about 3 games is a bit silly. History indicates you should expect regression from a Seibold team and I don’t think an overly technical coach is the one to help Brooks improve his game. Josh Schuster may be the biggest cancer in the game and it hurts team camaraderie when a guy on huge money can’t be bothered to get his fat arse on a treadmill.
16. Tigers - One where I don’t know what people are basing predictions of decent improvement in, particularly in the short term.
17. Bulldogs - I think they were actually the worst team in the comp last year, not Wests, and should be again.
Dragons were 17th, just couldn't fit it in my screen shot. Rabbits, Broncos and Sharks my big fallouts this year. Broncos weary from GF and post LA bad start just didnt recover. Sharks knocked back due to better performing teams and same with Souths, I don't rate Demetrieu and team is aging.
