Knights coach wants nothing left to chance
"WIN and we're in" is the only NRL finals scenario concerning Newcastle coach Brian Smith and his players as the Knights prepare for their last-round game against Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.Sitting in eighth position after their stirring 17-16 upset of title favourites Melbourne at EnergyAustralia Stadium on Saturday night, Newcastle are in the box seat on 28 points.
The only two teams with a chance of displacing the Knights are the ninth-placed Warriors (28) and 10th-placed Eels (26), who meet at Parramatta Stadium on Saturday night. But if Newcastle beat fifth-placed Brisbane (31), the Eels-Warriors result will be inconsequential.
They are tied on 28 competition points, but Newcastle (plus 52) have a superior for-and-against points differential over the Warriors (minus 87).
Parramatta, on 26 points and a differential of minus 24, appear to be out of the picture because they trail the Knights by 76 in points differential.
But if the Knights lose and the Eels win, and the results combine for a swing of more than 76 points in Parramatta's favour (eg: Knights lose by 40 and Parramatta win by 37), the Eels would leapfrog the Knights and Warriors into eighth position.
In the unlikely event of Newcastle and Parramatta being tied on differential, a series of other tie-breakers would apply, but they could only be implemented once the final for-and-against tallies were known.
Seventh-placed Canberra are also on 28 points but have a points differential of plus 95 and are at home on Sunday to the last-placed Bulldogs, who have lost seven in a row and will collect the wooden spoon if they lose.
"The most obvious thing for us is if we win, we're in, and that's all that matters. We can't miss out if we win the game so that's what we've got to do we've got to focus hard on winning," Smith said.
"I actually said that once or twice early in the year, that if we got to a situation where we had to beat Brisbane in Brisbane to make the play-offs, then we'll have done well."
The Broncos finished eighth on 24 points last year. The finals cut-off marks the previous five years were 28 (2006, 2005 and 2003), 26 (2004) and 25 (2002).
Like most pundits, Smith had envisaged 28 points would have been enough to make the eight this year, and it still might be.
But he believed the higher than expected pass mark was due to the poor overall results from the Cowboys and Bulldogs "and the teams at the top not really clearing out so there's been a lot more points shared in the middle there".
Smith hoped to have forwards Dan Tolar (back), Richie Fa'aoso (concussion), Cameron Ciraldo (hip and back), Danny Wicks (virus) and Zeb Taia (knee) available for selection after they all missed the victory over the Storm.
The coach said Fa'aoso and Wicks should be available, Ciraldo was likely, Taia was an outside chance, but Tolar was doubtful.
Taia has not played since tearing ligaments in a 32-12 victory over Parramatta four weeks ago but resumed running last week and will be subjected to a fitness test on Thursday.
Halfback Scott Dureau has been cleared of a broken foot, but he and forwards Cory Paterson (concussion) and Steve Simpson (shoulder) did rehab yesterday instead of a light training session after they all sustained minor injuries against Melbourne.
Smith said five-eighth Jarrod Mullen, who sat out some of the Storm game due to a virus, was making good progress and was in no doubt for the trip to Brisbane.
Meanwhile, centre Justin Hodges has emerged as the man to dig Brisbane out of their patchy form as they push towards a 17th successive NRL finals campaign under departing coach Wayne Bennett.
Hodges lifted the Broncos when they made a stirring second-half comeback in the 2006 preliminary final and went on to record a 15-8 upset grand final win over Melbourne which Bennett rated the "sweetest" of his six for the club.
The Test centre's aggression has led to him spending too much time on the sidelines this season, but Bennett believes he is ready to make a big difference to his team's finals fortunes again.
"I've been pleased with how Justin is going because he had a long time out [suspended for a dangerous throw] and another two weeks recently," Bennett said.
"He brings so much to our team. He brings a bit of passion to the joint. He plays with passion and energy, and the other guys get up on it.
"I get up on it watching him play so I'm sure his teammates do as well.
"Another week and I think he'll be primed to go.'
Hodges showed signs of his best as he tormented Bulldogs centre Tim Winitana on Sunday, scoring two tries and carving out 121 metres from 10 runs, which included two line breaks, in a 36-22 win.
Teammate Karmichael Hunt, who will become the youngest to play 100 NRL games when he runs out against Newcastle on Friday night, said Hodges was close to the form he displayed at the end of 2006.
"Week by week he's getting better and with the game coming up on Friday night he's pretty close to getting back on top of his game," Hunt said.
"He scored a couple of tries on the weekend and he and Locky [Darren Lockyer] combine well together. I have to get in the mix and get a try or two off them."
Hunt will be part of a highly emotional day with Bennett and long-serving forward Tonie Carroll possibly making their last appearance at home unless the Broncos secure a home final.
"It is a big personal milestone," Hunt said.
